⚡ Industry X-Ray

Decision-Making

What is survivorship bias?

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The Bias: WWII analysts studied bullet holes on returning planes. What was the insight?

Armor the places without holes: planes hit there didn't return. Abraham Wald's insight: the missing planes held the real data. Source: Wikipedia – Survivorship bias

Where It Shows Up: Where else?

"Dropout billionaire" advice. We hear from winners, not the many who tried the same thing and failed. Source: Wikipedia – Survivorship bias

The Fix: Fix?

Ask who's missing from the sample. The failures are the hidden half of the evidence. Source: Wikipedia – Survivorship bias

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